Housing Trends June 2013

Trends for Non-Distressed and Distressed

Properties Diverge as Investors Pull Back

 Investors have significantly reduced their home purchase activity in recent months, prompting divergent trends among property types.

 The non-distressed market continues to be strong, according to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey results. The average numbers of offers and sales-to-list price ratios have increased in recent months while average time on market for non-distressed properties has declined.

 Non-distressed properties received 2.3 offers in May, based on the three-month moving average, the third consecutive monthly increase for the metric. “Still really short of inventory to show my buyers and we face multiple offers with people willing to pay over the appraised price of the property,” according to a real estate agent in California.

Average offers on non-distressed properties vary by region, with Arizona, California and Nevada leading the country. Dot ChartNon-distressed properties in California received 4.1 offers in May, based on the three-month moving average. Non-distressed properties in Arizona and Nevada received 3.1 offers in May, based on the three-month moving average.

Properties in Farmbelt states of Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin received 1.4 offers in May, based on the three-month moving average. Properties in the South and Industrial Midwest also averaged fewer than 2.0 offers in May.

Sales-To-List-Price-Ratios

Sales-to-list price ratios on non-distressed properties increased for their fifth consecutive month to 97.6%, based on the three-month moving average.

 Properties in the West again outpaced the national average. In California, the sales-to-list price ratio was 99.8% in May, based on the three-month moving average. “List prices in most cases are now simply the opening bid for an auction,” according to a real estate agent in the San Francisco area.

Properties in the Northeast and Industrial Midwest had the lowest sales-to-list price ratios at 96.0% in May, based on the three-month moving average. “We have not seen the huge jump that some major cities have, however, if the house is priced right it will sell for very close to asking price,” according to a real estate agent in Missouri.

 And time on market for non-distressed properties declined for the third consecutive month to 9.2 weeks, based on the three-month moving average. Time on market for non-distressed properties in California was 4.2 weeks in May, based on the three-month moving average, while non-distressed properties in the Farmbelt, Northeast and South averaged about 12.0 weeks.

Distressed Property Trends

 Bar graphTrends for distressed properties diverged from non-distressed properties in May as some investors have switched business strategies from buying properties to selling them. Investors accounted for 20.2% of home purchases in May, based on the three-month moving average, down significantly from a peak share of 23.1% in February.

 

The number of offers on real-estate owned properties and short sales declined in May compared with the previous month, based on the three-month moving average. Sales-to-list price ratios also declined on short sales and damaged REO properties.

 And time on market increased significantly for short sales while staying relatively steady for REOs in May compared with April.

The Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey involves approximately 2,000 real estate agents nationwide each month and provides up-to-date intelligence on home sales and mortgage usage patterns.

 Residential Real Estate Pricing and Commission Metrics

Average Sales to Listing Price Ratio

Past 12 Months

Region

Damaged REO

Move-In Ready REO

Short Sale

Non- Distressed

AZ & NV

95%

102%

100%

97%

California

99%

102%

99%

99%

Farmbelt

93%

94%

95%

96%

Florida

97%

96%

96%

94%

Industrial Midwest

94%

98%

92%

95%

Northeast

90%

96%

91%

96%

Oil Producing

94%

95%

95%

97%

Pacific NW

96%

98%

98%

97%

Rocky Mountain

95%

98%

95%

96%

South

96%

96%

95%

96%

National Average

95%

97%

96%

96%

Average Listing Side Commissions

Past 12 Months

Region

Damaged REO

Move-In Ready REO

Short Sale

Non- Distressed

AZ & NV

2.38%

2.57%

2.99%

2.87%

2.38%

California

2.44%

2.54%

2.93%

2.67%

2.44%

Farmbelt

2.66%

2.68%

3.03%

2.92%

2.66%

Florida

2.67%

2.71%

2.97%

2.92%

2.67%

Industrial Midwest

2.82%

2.72%

2.91%

2.86%

2.82%

Northeast

2.68%

2.80%

2.90%

2.71%

2.68%

Oil Producing

2.61%

2.73%

2.84%

2.77%

2.61%

Pacific NW

2.52%

2.58%

2.92%

2.79%

2.52%

Rocky Mountain

2.62%

2.68%

2.90%

2.78%

2.62%

South

2.78%

2.74%

2.91%

2.81%

2.78%

National Average

2.68%

2.70%

2.93%

2.80%

2.68%

Average Buy Side Commissions

Past 12 Months

Region

Damaged REO

Move-In Ready REO

Short Sale

Non- Distressed

AZ & NV

2.83%

2.83%

2.78%

2.91%

California

2.70%

2.70%

2.69%

2.66%

Farmbelt

2.80%

2.82%

2.75%

2.74%

Florida

2.86%

2.85%

2.89%

2.94%

Industrial Midwest

2.91%

2.86%

2.80%

2.87%

Northeast

2.79%

2.74%

2.70%

2.65%

Oil Producing

2.83%

2.88%

2.87%

2.94%

Pacific NW

2.74%

2.83%

2.76%

2.78%

Rocky Mountain

2.84%

2.87%

2.83%

2.88%

South

2.88%

2.88%

2.86%

2.90%

National Average

2.84%

2.83%

2.79%

2.83%

Average Property Price by Region Past 12 Months

Region

Damaged REO

Move-In Ready REO

Short Sale

Non- Distressed

AZ & NV

$258,382

$168,910

$158,802

$246,354

California

$250,889

$305,833

$286,267

$467,536

Farmbelt

$76,771

$157,864

$138,498

$193,632

Florida

$97,599

$198,536

$146,194

$226,506

Industrial Midwest

$58,161

$145,233

$146,339

$198,803

Northeast

$166,829

$275,559

$210,313

$298,887

Oil Producing

$79,069

$158,917

$153,265

$214,538

Pacific NW

$138,058

$243,621

$184,802

$304,533

Rocky Mountain

$135,942

$210,958

$187,031

$277,753

South

$79,685

$165,500

$161,718

$232,540

National Average

$109,974

$200,195

$191,421

$261,562

Map

reprinted with permission: Campbell Surveys – Housing Trends update is published monthly and is available only to real estate agents who are part of the Campbell Housing Pulse Survey Panel For information on joining the panel contact John Campbell at 202-363-2069 email “ john at houseingpulse.com”

 

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